The most likely environmental change to lead to speciation is D. A long-term shift in climate creates geographic isolation . This type of isolation allows populations to evolve independently and develop reproductive barriers. Other options typically do not create lasting conditions needed for speciation.
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A long-term shift in climate that creates geographic isolation is most likely to lead to speciation, as it encourages genetic divergence and reproductive isolation among separated populations. Other options, like temporary droughts or minor temperature changes, do not typically result in such lasting impacts. Speciation occurs when populations adapt to different environments over time. ;