Based on the chart, what would most likely happen if the demand for oil decreased after 1990?
A. The government would go bankrupt.
B. Government revenue would decline.
C. The government would seek foreign loans.
D. Government revenue would double.
Answer (1)
The table indicates a strong reliance on oil revenue.
Decreased oil demand directly reduces government income.
The most likely outcome is a decline in government revenue.
Therefore, the answer is that government revenue would decline. $\boxed{Government revenue would decline.}
Explanation
Analyzing the Problem The table shows the percentage of total government revenue derived from oil between 1967 and 1990. We observe a significant increase in this percentage over the years, reaching 97.24% in 1990. The question asks us to predict the most likely outcome if the demand for oil decreases after 1990.
Determining the Impact of Decreased Oil Demand Since the government's revenue is heavily dependent on oil (as evidenced by the 97.24% figure in 1990), a decrease in oil demand would directly lead to a reduction in government revenue.
Evaluating the Options Let's evaluate the given options:
The government would go bankrupt: While a significant decline in revenue would certainly strain the government's finances, it's not necessarily the most immediate or likely outcome. Bankruptcy is a severe situation that usually follows prolonged financial distress.
Government revenue would decline: This is the most direct and logical consequence of reduced oil demand, given the government's heavy reliance on oil revenue.
The government would seek foreign loans: This is a possible response to declining revenue, but it's not the immediate or only option. The government might first try other measures, such as cutting spending or increasing taxes.
Government revenue would double: This is the opposite of what we would expect, given the decreased demand for oil.
Conclusion Based on the analysis, the most likely outcome is that government revenue would decline.
Examples
Consider a country heavily reliant on exporting a single commodity, like coffee beans. If a disease suddenly wipes out a large portion of their coffee crop, the country's export revenue would significantly decrease. This decrease could lead to budget cuts in public services, increased taxes, or the need to seek financial assistance from international organizations. Understanding this dependency helps governments diversify their economies to avoid such vulnerabilities.
